Markets put 60% odds on Anthropic public Claude Mythos

Prediction markets assign a 60% probability that Anthropic will publicly release the Claude Mythos model on or before June 9, with $42,212 traded on that Polymarket contract and more than $2.2 million staked across major markets tracking the timeline.

On Polymarket, traders place a 60% probability on a June 9 public release, 19% on June 10 and 11% on no release by June 30; that contract shows $42,212 in volume. A separate Polymarket market tracking cumulative release odds assigns an 81% probability of a public release by June 10, rising to 86% by June 12, 89% by June 15 and 90% by June 30, with the July 31 outcome at 92% confidence. That broader market has recorded $1,578,682 in volume.

On Kalshi, the “Before July 1” contract implies a 43% probability after a recent drop tied to speculation the model could be released under a different name. Kalshi’s “Before October 1” contract stands at 73%, and Kalshi’s total volume for the event is $607,723. Combined volume across the major prediction markets tracking Mythos is just over $2.2 million.

The market movement follows circulating reports and social posts suggesting Anthropic may widen access to Mythos soon. The posts indicate any public build would include stronger safety guardrails that limit offensive cybersecurity uses and that the company might market the public version under a consumer-facing name. Anthropic has not posted an official release announcement on its newsroom or verified social accounts.

Claude Mythos Preview is Anthropic’s highest-capability frontier model, introduced in April and placed above the Opus tier. At launch it was limited to roughly 50 vetted partners because of concerns about misuse, particularly its cybersecurity capabilities.

Under Project Glasswing, Anthropic’s defensive cybersecurity initiative, partners using the model reported finding more than 10,000 high- or critical-severity vulnerabilities in critical software and open-source projects between April and May. Internal testing and partner reports indicate Mythos Preview can convert a newly disclosed vulnerability into a working exploit in about 31 minutes, a process that previously took security researchers weeks.

Anthropic has expanded vetted access in early June but has not moved to a full public rollout. Project Glasswing access was extended to a European cybersecurity agency and about 150 additional organizations across more than 15 countries, including operators in power, water and healthcare infrastructure. Company communications describe that expansion as vetted access rather than a general release.

Company communications state Mythos-class models will be released to the public “once we’ve developed the far stronger safeguards we need.” The company has indicated plans to launch a safer Opus 4.8 model as its general-purpose flagship while working on wider Mythos availability, and has acknowledged competitors could release similarly capable models within six to 12 months.

For confirmation of any public release, market participants and observers are monitoring Anthropic’s official blog and its verified social accounts. Market signals are changing quickly and traders are placing real money on the expectation that wider access could arrive in the coming days.