Markets See 26% Chance Bitcoin Falls Below $70K in May

Prediction markets on Myriad and Polymarket now assign roughly a 26–27% probability that Bitcoin will finish May below $70,000 after the cryptocurrency slid to a six-week low overnight near $72,700.

On Myriad the odds of a sub-$70,000 close for May rose more than 240% in 24 hours to about 27%. Polymarket shows a similar probability at roughly 26%. Bitcoin traded around $72,700 during the drop, near 3.9% above the $70,000 threshold and down about 3% over the past 24 hours.

Liquidations and outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds contributed to selling pressure. Liquidation trackers recorded nearly $924 million in crypto liquidations over the past day, with about $851 million tied to long positions being forcibly closed.

Data show more than $1 billion left Bitcoin ETFs over the last two trading days, including roughly $733 million on Wednesday. More than $2.6 billion has exited those products over the current eight-day losing streak.

An analyst at Arctic Digital attributed part of the decline to ETF withdrawals and commented: “Partly this is due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out.”

Short-term prediction markets have not priced in an abrupt collapse. On Myriad the probability Bitcoin falls below $65,000 before month-end is about 3%. Over longer horizons, Polymarket participants put a 54% probability on Bitcoin trading under $55,000 and a 42% probability on it dipping below $50,000 in 2026.

Market data show Bitcoin is down about 6% over the past week and roughly 33% year-to-date, trading more than 42% below its all-time high near $126,080. Some analysts and firms have identified levels in the $50,000–$55,000 range as potential downside targets.