Linked Polymarket Wallets Net $320K on Biden Pardons
Two linked Polymarket wallets earned about $320,000 by correctly betting on four of President Biden’s last-day pardons, increasing stakes when market odds were near zero.
Two linked Polymarket wallets earned roughly $320,000 by correctly betting on four presidential pardons issued on January 20, President Biden’s final day in office. The accounts increased stakes as market odds for several pardon candidates fell to single digits.
Blockchain data shows the wallets placed the wagers on Jan. 20 and had previously bet that Biden would pardon his son, Hunter Biden. The accounts recorded a 100% win rate on pardon-related markets.
One recorded trade was a $21,711 wager on a Jim Biden pardon at about 11% odds; the position returned $198,220 within minutes after the pardon was announced. Another bet selected Adam Schiff when the market implied about a 6% chance at the time of the stake. Combined, the four correct wagers produced about $320,000 in net profit for the linked wallets.
The link between the two accounts was identified by blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps. Bubblemaps described the activity as “big, well-timed bets across several connected wallets” and said the pattern resembles other suspicious political trades the firm has tracked.
Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market that records trades on public blockchains, enabling outside analysts to trace linked accounts and transaction histories. Visibility of on-chain records made it possible to identify the connection, though linked wallets alone do not prove illegal insider activity.
The trades come amid broader attention to well-timed bets on political events. Lawmakers questioned Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig about the agency’s approach to investigating such trades. Separately, White House officials privately advised staff not to place wagers on politically sensitive topics, including the conflict in Iran.
No regulatory investigations or enforcement actions have been announced in connection with these specific Polymarket wagers.
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