Ki Young Ju: Bitcoin profit-taking could extend bear to 2027

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X that bitcoin’s profit-taking cascade, which began in October 2025, typically drives aggregate investor profit-and-loss (PnL) lower for roughly 18 months. “Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months,” he wrote, and added that the current downtrend could persist into early 2027.

Ju’s projection rests on an aggregate PnL index that combines on-chain valuation measures such as the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio and net unrealized profit and loss. He says the index peaked around mid-2025 and has fallen since as realized profits have increased while unrealized gains remain on holders’ books.

Realized profits occur when holders sell coins and lock in gains. Unrealized profits are paper gains on coins still held. Ju argues that because many holders remain in profit and continue to sell, selling pressure can persist until those unrealized gains are reduced.

Not all market signals match that timeline. CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator flipped to bullish on May 12, its first green signal since March 2023. That indicator has historically coincided with the start of more constructive market conditions.

Research firm K33 has offered a different reading, noting bitcoin’s roughly $60,000 low in February may already have marked the cycle’s maximum drawdown, about a 52% decline from the $126,272 high recorded on Oct. 6, 2025. Those assessments provide contrasting views of whether the market must still digest further selling or has begun to stabilize.

Ju has previously described the 2025 bull cycle as over, citing a widening gap between realized capitalization and market capitalization. He says the pattern will reverse only when unrealized profits begin to rebuild while realized profits decline; he identifies that point as the tripwire for the end of the profit-taking phase.

Market participants can track on-chain metrics, exchange-traded fund flows and cycle indicators to watch for changes in realized and unrealized profit trends. Observers will monitor whether unrealized gains start to rise at the same time realized gains fall, which Ju flags as the condition that would end the roughly 18-month decline in aggregate PnL.