K33: Bitcoin Drawdown Likely Capped at $60K

K33 Research published a note this week concluding that bitcoin’s February low near $60,000 likely represents the maximum drawdown of the 2026 downturn. The firm’s base case forecasts a period of consolidation with bitcoin trading between $60,000 and $75,000 rather than a renewed steep sell-off.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, cited derivatives data as the main evidence. Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate for perpetual swap contracts has been negative for 81 consecutive days. Lunde described that extended negative funding as “uniquely pessimistic.” K33’s note says prolonged negative funding can exhaust short-term selling pressure, which can limit further immediate declines before a sustained recovery.

K33 calculated the February trough at about $60,000, roughly a 52% drop from bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 6, 2025. That peak-to-trough move is smaller than the more than 80% declines seen in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. The firm attributes the reduced downside partly to larger institutional participation and wider use of regulated investment products, which it says make the extreme, highly leveraged feedback loops of prior cycles harder to sustain at scale.

The research also points to signs that long-term holders are nearing selling exhaustion, a pattern that has previously preceded multi-month price floors. K33 noted parallels with late 2022, when bitcoin approached $60,000 and then entered a recovery phase. The firm frames the market’s immediate question as one of duration: how long bitcoin remains rangebound between $60,000 and $75,000 rather than whether it will fall substantially below the February low.