Iran tensions lift oil past $100; Bitcoin near $70,850

U.S. talks with Iran collapsed over the weekend and a U.S. threat to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil above $100 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 8% in one day and traded near $105 per barrel. S&P 500 futures fell roughly 0.6%.

President Donald Trump posted that at some point he expects an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis for the strait. Market participants described the comment as a potential plan to restrict traffic and control passage, prompting immediate moves in oil markets.

A private market research firm, Mosaic Asset Company, noted that recent inflation measures already show rising pressure beyond energy costs and cited higher annualized readings in the personal consumption expenditures index over three- and six-month periods. The U.S. Producer Price Index for March is scheduled for release this week and is expected to add data on wholesale inflation trends.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently reflects market pricing that places no federal funds rate cuts before the second half of 2027.

Bitcoin closed the week near $70,850, preserving the 200-week exponential moving average and the 2021 all-time high as support levels. Price action included a wick to near $70,500 during the geopolitical shock.

A trader using the name Roman posted on X that ‘AT LEAST 1 more low would give us reversal signals on HTF,’ and has previously highlighted deeper lows near $50,000 as part of a potential recovery path. He listed conditions that would align with a higher-timeframe reversal, including a bullish divergence on the relative strength index, falling bear momentum and improving volume.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that each rally attempt above $70,000 encountered concentrated profit-taking, noting that a bounce to the >$70k range was exhausted by more than $20 million per hour in realized profit. Glassnode said the pattern of thin liquidity followed by profit-taking has limited upward moves in the $70k–$80k band since February 2026.

CryptoQuant reported easing distribution pressure among recent investor cohorts. Contributor Amr Taha noted that short-term holder profit/loss pressure on Binance entered a calmer phase, with the seven-day standard deviation of realized profit/loss pressure falling to 217, its lowest reading since February. CryptoQuant also reported reduced whale transfer pressure to Binance and an increase in long-term holder realized cap, which surpassed $50 billion for the first time in nearly a year.

Traders are monitoring shipping and security developments in the Gulf for oil market direction and watching technical indicators and on-chain metrics for signals of a sustained shift in the cryptocurrency market.