Indonesia blocks Polymarket over bets on President Prabowo

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs blocked access to the crypto prediction market Polymarket on Friday after the platform opened a market allowing bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term. Authorities cited Indonesian laws that prohibit online gambling.

The ministry said platforms that let users wager money on uncertain outcomes are gambling products, even when they use blockchain technology or crypto assets. Alexander Sabar, director general of digital space supervision at the ministry, said in a translated statement that the government will not permit any form of online gambling in Indonesia. Officials said they are tracing social media accounts linked to Polymarket to ensure the restrictions are enforced.

The market tied to Prabowo’s presidency had generated more than $51,000 in trading volume. Traders placed about a 1% chance that the president would leave by May 31 and roughly an 11% chance by the end of 2026. Indonesian regulators identified that market as the immediate reason for the enforcement action, saying the platform’s model allows users to wager on political outcomes.

Taiwan, Thailand, China and Japan have already restricted access to Polymarket, and authorities in India are reported to be moving to block Polymarket and rival Kalshi. More than 30 countries have barred access to the platform amid concerns about betting, market manipulation and consumer protection.

The sector has seen legal challenges in the United States. Minnesota passed a ban on prediction markets and was sued hours later by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice, which contend certain types of derivative trading fall under federal oversight. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has urged clearer regulatory rules to keep activity onshore; some lawmakers have raised concerns about insider trading risks on these platforms.

Prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts tied to future events, with prices reflecting the market’s view of an outcome’s probability. Crypto-native platforms like Polymarket settle positions using digital assets and have grown rapidly, prompting regulators to consider how gambling, securities and derivatives laws apply and what consumer safeguards are needed.

Polymarket and its operators had not issued a public response at the time of the ministry announcement.