House GOP to limit lawmakers’ bets on elections, policy

House Republicans plan to add limits on lawmakers’ use of prediction markets to H.R.7008, the stalled bill that would restrict congressional stock trading, Representative Bryan Steil said he will attach the provisions before the measure reaches the House floor.

The proposal would not ban members of Congress from using prediction markets outright. It would bar certain contracts tied to elections and public-policy outcomes while allowing wagers on sports and entertainment events, such as the Super Bowl, according to Steil.

Steil described the change as a rules-setting measure rather than a condemnation of the technology, saying, “I don’t think this is a critique of the underlying product one way or the other.” He expects House leaders to schedule a vote on the combined bill.

Lawmakers and ethics advisers have raised concerns that trading on election or policy outcomes could create conflicts of interest or give insiders an unfair advantage. Some critics have also called attention to contracts that relate to violent or sensitive events and described those as comparable to gambling. Supporters of prediction markets say the platforms can aggregate information and produce signals about likely outcomes.

Separately, records tied to one prediction-market platform show at least $350,000 routed through a personal account connected to the company’s chief marketing officer and more than $2.5 million paid to hundreds of recipients over about 14 months. At least 20 online creators later posted about the platform without clear disclosure of financial ties. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

Prediction markets drew attention in 2024 after users placed successful wagers on a presidential outcome. Regulators in several jurisdictions are considering tighter limits or bans on election-related contracts. H.R.7008 was originally focused on tightening rules for congressional stock trading; Republican sponsors are combining those provisions with targeted limits on prediction-market contracts as the House prepares to consider the measure.