Grayscale: Strategy’s Share Slump Could Limit Bitcoin Buys

Grayscale said weak prices for Strategy’s common stock (MSTR) and its variable-rate preferred equity (STRC) may reduce the company’s ability to buy more bitcoin after Strategy disclosed a 32 BTC sale last week, the firm’s first disposal since 2022.

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, wrote that the combination of lower share prices and pressure on Strategy’s financing instruments has raised volatility in the bitcoin market and could constrain further accumulation. At the time of Grayscale’s note, the company’s dashboard showed MSTR trading at $120.44, down 6.9%, bitcoin near $63,054 and Strategy’s reported bitcoin holdings at 843,706 BTC.

Pandl identified STRC, nicknamed “Stretch,” as a specific vulnerability. STRC is structured to trade near $100 and carries an 11.5% dividend. Grayscale reported STRC trading around $93.40, implying an effective yield near 12.31%. If investors demand higher returns on STRC, Strategy could face pressure to raise the dividend, increasing its cost of capital and leaving less flexibility to fund bitcoin purchases.

Pandl added that the recent volatility around STRC may matter more than the small size of the 32 BTC sale, and that at current share prices Strategy will have limited capacity to accumulate additional tokens. He also noted that broader ownership of bitcoin over time should support the token’s price and market resilience.

Strategy’s leadership maintained that its accumulation plan remains intact. Chief Executive Phong Le reiterated the company’s objective to increase net bitcoin and bitcoin per share over time. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s public post, saying it was ‘a good time to add more dots,’ increased market expectations that Strategy might soon disclose another purchase.

Some analysts still expect more buying. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered estimated Strategy could announce purchases in ranges such as 320 BTC or 3,200 BTC and the bank retained a $100,000 bitcoin price target.

Grayscale said a key financing channel to watch is Strategy’s share prices. If MSTR and STRC remain depressed, the company could face higher effective costs to raise capital through instruments like STRC. Higher dividend demands on preferred equity would reduce cash available for bitcoin purchases and could affect market swings when Strategy changes its holdings. Grayscale also expects bitcoin to recover over the coming months but noted that parts of the crypto market that benefit more directly from regulatory clarity could lead near-term performance. Strategy said its long-term buying plan remains unchanged and market observers are watching for any new purchase disclosures.