Grayscale: Bitcoin appears undervalued; CLARITY, leverage decide

On June 9, Grayscale Investments head of research Zach Pandl wrote that a composite onchain valuation indicator shows bitcoin trading below its long-term average and appearing undervalued. He added the reading is not as deep a discount as past cyclical lows after the FTX collapse.

Grayscale’s valuation model combines three onchain measures. Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) gauges whether holders are in profit or loss. Price compared with Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) compares price with a long-term benchmark tied to movement of long-held coins. Market Cap relative to Thermo Cap compares the market’s value with cumulative miner revenue.

Pandl wrote that the current bear market may be shallower than prior cycles, citing a more muted preceding bull run and changes in market structure, including wider availability of exchange-traded products, access on wealth platforms and greater institutional adoption.

Grayscale identified two factors that could determine whether the recent decline becomes a durable bottom. The first is the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House passed the bill in 2025 and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it on a bipartisan vote in May. Full Senate approval is still required. The legislation would establish a federal framework for digital assets, covering token classifications, exchange and broker rules, custody standards and disclosure requirements.

The second factor is pressure from leveraged bitcoin holders. Grayscale warned that forced unwinds of heavily leveraged positions could produce renewed selling and higher volatility. Market participants are monitoring leverage levels and margin conditions as potential sources of near-term stress.

Pandl wrote, “We remain optimistic about CLARITY but prediction markets say it’s a tossup.”

The note does not recommend a specific trade. It names several blockchain networks Grayscale sees as positioned to benefit from clearer U.S. rules, including Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain and the Canton Network.

Bitcoin recently fell below $60,000 to a new cycle low. Grayscale’s analysis shows a discount relative to its historical valuation indicators and states that Senate action on CLARITY, leverage dynamics among holders and market stress will influence market direction.