Ether could fall to $1,800 as TVL drops to $116B

Ether has formed a bear pennant on the daily chart and could drop to about $1,800 if the pattern resolves to the downside, according to technical analysts.

The token has declined roughly 13% from multi-month highs above $2,400 and recently broke an ascending trend line that had supported price since early February. On the daily chart, the bear pennant consolidates after that pullback. A break below the pennant’s lower trend line near $2,060 would project a decline roughly equal to the prior move, placing a lower target around $1,800, about 14% below recent levels. Several analysts say a failure to hold $2,050 would increase the chances of testing that zone.

In a video posted on X, trader Chain Mind warned, “ETH is going to dump hard soon?” and described the recent price action as “the crucial moment for ETH,” adding that the token needed to reclaim the breached support or face deeper losses. Crypto analyst Alex Marzell wrote that a break under $2,050 would raise the likelihood of a move toward the $1,800 support area.

The technical concerns come as Ethereum’s total value locked across decentralized finance protocols has fallen sharply. DeFi trackers show TVL at $116 billion, a level last seen in April 2025 and about 55% below Ethereum’s all-time TVL of $258 billion recorded on Aug. 14, 2025.

The decline in TVL is pronounced on layer-2 scaling networks. Analytics firm CryptoRank reported a sustained TVL decline in the L2 sector and noted steep contractions in several rollups: Arbitrum down about 63%, zkSync down about 64%, and Linea down roughly 98% over the measured period. Ether.fi’s reported TVL fell about 32% over the past 30 days. CryptoRank described the sharpest corrections as reflecting “high liquidity sensitivity to incentive programs and short-term reward mechanics.”

Market participants track TVL as a measure of capital committed to smart contracts and as an indicator of liquidity available to decentralized exchanges, lending protocols and other DeFi services. Observers say the recent outflows reduce capital deployed on Ethereum and could add selling pressure to Ether.

Other factors noted by market watchers include a series of departures from the Ethereum Foundation and softer social media sentiment around the asset. Analysts point to the combination of the technical pattern, lower TVL and these other developments as elements that may affect near-term price action.

Total value locked measures funds committed to DeFi protocols on a blockchain and across its scaling solutions. Layer-2 rollups were designed to concentrate liquidity and scale transactions, but recent withdrawals and incentive-driven flows have moved capital across chains and programs, fragmenting liquidity within the rollup ecosystem.