Ether could fall 10% vs. Bitcoin as staking hits record

Ether could decline about 10% against Bitcoin to 0.026 BTC in May if the ETH/BTC pair breaks the lower trend line of a bear-flag pattern that has been in place since February.

The ratio fell roughly 5.5% over the past week and has been trading inside a rising parallel channel that followed an earlier sharp drop. In technical analysis, the measured downside target is calculated by taking the height of the prior decline and projecting that distance below the breakdown point, which places the target near 0.026 BTC.

A similar bear-flag breakdown earlier this year preceded an approximate 15% decline in ETH/BTC.

If ETH/BTC instead bounces from the flag’s lower boundary, price could retrace toward the channel’s upper edge near 0.032 BTC during May. Traders are watching daily price action and trading volumes for confirmation of either outcome.

On-chain data show Ethereum’s staking ratio reached a record 32.33% on April 21, with about 39 million ETH locked across 816,578 validators, representing roughly $90.26 billion in staked value, according to Token Terminal.

The Ethereum Foundation completed a 70,000 ETH staking target earlier this month. BitMine Immersion Technologies holds about 4.976 million ETH, or roughly 4.12% of total supply, with approximately 3.334 million ETH staked through its validators.

With more ETH committed to staking, the amount of supply available for active trading is lower than before. Market participants will monitor staking trends and price action around the bear-flag boundaries to assess whether ETH/BTC moves toward the 0.026 BTC target or reverses toward higher levels.