CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Indicator Flips Green; 2022 False Signal
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned green on May 12 for the first time since March 2023; a similar green in 2022 preceded deeper losses and the FTX collapse.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator moved into bullish territory on May 12, the first green reading since March 2023. The change comes as prices trade near $80,000 and follows a period of negative readings earlier in 2026.
The indicator is derived from CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss (P&L) Index, which combines three on-chain measures: Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and a comparison of long-term holder to short-term holder spent output profit ratios (LTH/STH SOPR). The gauge flips green when the P&L Index rises above its 365-day moving average and turns red when it falls below.
The last prolonged green period ran from March 2023 through August 2024, covering bitcoin’s rise from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. CryptoQuant notes the indicator also flashed green briefly in March 2022 before prices resumed a downward trend that ended with the FTX collapse in November 2022.
April institutional flows and on-chain metrics provide additional context for the May flip. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.44 billion of inflows in April, the largest monthly institutional inflow since October 2025. Wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more increased by 142 addresses in the past six months. Glassnode’s RHODL ratio is at 4.5, a level previously observed only at two prior cycle lows in 2015 and 2022.
The indicator had been deeply negative in February 2026, when CryptoQuant recorded its lowest reading since the FTX bottom. That drop coincided with bitcoin pulling back from an October 2025 peak near $126,000. Since then, prices have shown gradual stabilization and ETF flows remained net positive into May.
Price forecasts for the remainder of 2026 vary. Standard Chartered and Bernstein have projected targets near $150,000 by year-end. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, has argued that the October 2025 high may represent the cycle peak and that 2026 could serve mainly as a consolidation year.
Traders and institutional managers use the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator alongside other on-chain, technical and macroeconomic measures when assessing possible cycle turning points.
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