Cryptoquant: Bitcoin stress gauge near 40%, below max-opportunity

Cryptoquant’s onchain stress gauge stood near 40% as June began, a level that has aligned with past bitcoin cycle lows but remains short of the platform’s defined ‘maximum opportunity’ zone. Bitcoin opened the month below $70,000 after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $2.43 billion in outflows in May.

The indicator, highlighted by Cryptoquant contributor MorenoDV, estimates the financial stress the bitcoin market is absorbing. Cryptoquant data show the measure historically reached deeper readings at major price troughs, including the ends of 2015, 2019 and 2022. Related short-term risk-adjusted return measures recently hit a four-year low.

May’s ETF redemptions removed a significant source of demand. Bitcoin also closed its third red monthly candle of 2026, a sequence Cryptoquant analysts link to elevated market pressure. The firm notes the combination of redemptions and weaker short-term returns as contributors to the stress reading.

Views within Cryptoquant differ. Founder Ki Young Ju warned that profit-taking can cascade and that investor profit-and-loss typically worsens for about 18 months before a trend reset, a timeline that could extend the current down phase into early 2027. Other team members have pointed to signs of seller fatigue and flagged periods this year when the desk’s bull-bear cycle indicator flipped bullish.

MorenoDV advised patience, saying the clearest buying opportunities in prior cycles emerged after selling had exhausted and the stress gauge entered the ‘maximum opportunity’ zone. Market participants are watching for a sustained move into that deeper stress territory as a confirmation that selling has run its course.

For now, Cryptoquant’s data describe a high-stress market phase that has not yet reached the deeper historical extremes associated with previous bottoms. Traders and investors using these measures are monitoring further signs of selling exhaustion before changing positions.