CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Nears Realized Price; ETFs Outflow $4.8B

CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week and is moving closer to its realized price of about $53,600. The firm associated the decline with heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which exceeded $4.8 billion since May 14.

Realized price is the average cost basis across all holders. CryptoQuant estimates that marker at roughly $53,600, about 13% below Bitcoin’s trading level near $61,680. The firm noted that in prior major bear cycles Bitcoin bottomed at or marginally below the realized price, pointing to the November 2022 FTX-driven sell-off that briefly pierced the marker before a rebound.

The analytics firm combined data on long liquidations and contractions in spot demand and found what it called the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022. The report wrote: “There are structurally fewer Bitcoin buyers today than a year ago-removing the demand foundation required to sustain any price recovery.”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs had only one day of inflows since May 14 and recorded more than $4.8 billion in net outflows over that span, according to Farside Investors data. CryptoQuant described the outflows and the rotation of capital away from Bitcoin as a “categorical reversal” that cut into available buying pressure.

Bitcoin slipped through the $60,000 level for the first time since 2024, falling about 6.6% over seven days and trading roughly 51% below its all-time high of $126,080.

Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of Strategy, called the movements “capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment.”

U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. CryptoQuant noted that higher inflation and expectations for a restrictive Federal Reserve could add pressure to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The firm wrote that holders have not yet reached levels of capitulation that typically clear oversupply. CryptoQuant added that realized losses will likely need to accelerate to remove excess supply before a stable price rebound can occur.

CryptoQuant’s analysis compared current ETF flows, on-chain activity and derivatives positioning to past cycles and found the indicators continue to contract. The firm warned that a confirmed bear-market bottom or bullish reversal may still take time to develop.