CryptoQuant: Bitcoin bear market over as indicator turns positive

CryptoQuant Chief Executive Ki Young Ju wrote on X that Bitcoin’s bear market has ended after the platform’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved into positive territory for the first time since October 2025. The indicator registered a value of 0.042 on the full data for Aug. 26.

The Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator is calculated from CryptoQuant’s P&L Index and measures the index’s distance from its 365-day moving average. The P&L Index combines three onchain profitability metrics: market value to realized value (MVRV), net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Readings above zero are interpreted by CryptoQuant as a shift into a bullish phase when investor profitability improves.

CryptoQuant’s data show the current cycle reached a low on Feb. 5, when BTC/USD traded near $60,000 and the indicator hit -1.244, a level classified as “extreme bear.” The firm previously identified the end of the prior bear market when upside returned in early 2023.

Other technical measures have shown recoveries in recent weeks. The relative strength index (RSI) has climbed from earlier lows, a pattern that was also visible at the end of 2022 and during the 2023 recovery.

Market participants have raised concerns about the strength and durability of the rally. CryptoQuant’s composite signal comes while liquidity immediately above the spot price remains thin and sell-side supply is concentrated at several key levels. One analyst argued that the August monthly close will be important to test a downward-sloping resistance line in place since October of last year.

Traders and institutional observers that follow onchain profit-and-loss metrics are likely to monitor price action around resistance levels, liquidity absorption and month-end closes to assess whether the positive reading marks a sustained trend change.