Crypto capitulation: 8M+ BTC underwater, ETH profits shrink

More than 8 million Bitcoin are trading below the cost basis of their holders after a 2026 market drawdown that has left Bitcoin down about 31% year-to-date and Ethereum down roughly 46%, according to on-chain and market data.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit at the cycle peak, but that share has since fallen sharply, leaving over 8 million BTC underwater. Glassnode also found that only 11% of Ethereum supply is held at greater than three times purchase price, the lowest reading since February 2017.

XRP holders have recorded losses across recent months. Glassnode’s 90-day simple moving average of XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio fell to 0.38, indicating that for every dollar of realized loss being taken, market participants are realizing about 38 cents of profit. The 90-day average of fees paid on the XRP network dropped from roughly 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to about 500 XRP, a decline of roughly 91.5%.

Market price data show Bitcoin trading near $61,080, about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. CoinGecko figures cited in market reports place Bitcoin down roughly 31% and Ethereum down about 46% for 2026. XRP is down about 41% year-to-date.

Traders have withdrawn capital from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds amid rising geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures, contributing to lower liquidity and heightened price volatility.

Gracy Chen, chief executive of Bitget, noted that a substantial portion of the market is sitting on unrealized losses and that long-term holders often use such periods to reassess conviction and portfolio positioning rather than react to short-term price swings.

Matthew Pinnock, chief operating officer at Altura DeFi, commented that investor interest appears to be shifting toward tokens and protocols with revenue models, buybacks or clear product-market fit. He pointed to tokenized equity and projects with predictable cash flow as drawing renewed attention from some market participants.

Most altcoins have tracked the broader decline and remain between 50% and 80% below their all-time highs. A small group of tokens tied to measurable usage or revenue, including Hyperliquid and privacy-focused coins such as Zcash and Canton, have shown relative resilience.

Prediction markets are pricing further downside for Bitcoin. One market assigns a roughly 75% probability that Bitcoin will retest $55,000, up from about 61% at the start of June.

By some measures the current drawdown is the shallowest multi-year bear market in Bitcoin’s history, but the price decline still represents a substantial repricing from last year’s highs. Analysts and industry executives continue to track on-chain metrics and flows as indicators of holder behavior and network activity.