CLARITY Act misses July 4 target, 25-day Senate window

The CLARITY Act failed to reach the Senate by the White House’s July 4 target and now faces roughly 25 working days between the chamber’s July 13 return and an Aug. 7 recess to win the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

H.R. 3633 would assign most crypto securities oversight to the Securities and Exchange Commission and give derivative and commodity authority to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14. It now sits on the Senate legislative calendar awaiting a cloture vote that requires 60 senators for floor time and final passage.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and must secure at least seven Democratic votes to reach the cloture threshold. Senate leaders, including Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott and Majority Leader John Thune, have urged a floor vote. Senator Cynthia Lummis has highlighted the bill’s consumer protections. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt set a July 4 goal in May, noting: “We’re targeting July 4th. I think that would be a tremendous birthday present for America, celebrating our 250th.”

A central dispute centers on ethics language tied to President Trump’s financial disclosure. The June filing showed more than $1 billion in crypto-related income in 2025 and bitcoin holdings above $50 million held through entities tied to World Liberty Financial. Democrats including Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker seek enforceable provisions to address potential conflicts involving the president and his family. Republicans proposed limiting enforcement authority to the U.S. attorney general rather than allowing state attorneys general to bring suits; Democrats rejected that option on the grounds that the attorney general serves at the president’s pleasure.

A second fight involves Section 604, which would shield certain non-custodial developers from securities registration. Firms such as Coinbase, Uniswap and a16z Crypto have urged lawmakers to preserve those protections, arguing that writing code should not trigger registration duties. Prosecutors and state law-enforcement groups oppose the carve-outs. The National District Attorneys’ Association warned that the exemptions “would severely impair the ability of law enforcement and prosecutors to investigate, trace, and prosecute criminal activity.”

With about two to three weeks of meaningful floor time before the August recess, analysts now put the odds of passage in 2026 near 50-50, down from roughly 60% in June as ethics talks have stalled. Three people following the process see a possible path to passage before the midterm recess, but the calendar allows little margin for error.