Capital shift to AI and IPOs leaves Bitcoin underowned

James Check, founder of Checkonchain, says capital flowing into artificial intelligence stocks and large upcoming IPOs is removing impatient bitcoin holders and leaving bitcoin underowned ahead of a market cycle turn.

He calls the process ‘time pain’, a gradual attrition that removes short-term sellers until the remaining holder base shows little structural pressure to sell.

Check presented his thesis on a podcast and in a social post, arguing investors chasing faster returns are reallocating from slower assets such as bitcoin into AI names and expected public offerings.

Market data point to concentrated gains and valuation stress. Bank of America’s strategists reported about 70% of their bear-market indicators had triggered in June 2026 and cut their year-end S&P 500 target to 7,100, citing narrow leadership by AI and other tech stocks, softer demand signals and signs of credit stress.

Morningstar’s discounted cash flow model placed SpaceX’s fair value near $780 billion, below private market levels around $1.5 trillion and reported IPO targets above $1.75 trillion. Morningstar cited recurring net losses, heavy capital spending needs and uncertainty about Starship economics.

SpaceX pricing and initial trading were widely expected around June 11-12, 2026. The company has been discussed as seeking up to $75 billion at valuations reported between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. Investors are also watching OpenAI, which reportedly projects a net loss near $14 billion in 2026 and cumulative losses in the tens of billions, and other privately held AI firms that have filed confidentially for public offerings.

Check distinguishes fast, rotation-driven capital from long-duration capital that does not trade cycles. He says he treats bitcoin and gold as long-term savings and does not trade them.

He warned that a large ‘hero IPO’ can mark the peak of speculative euphoria and said such an offering can absorb demand at frothy prices, leaving neglected assets at points of maximum neglect.

Analysts note hyperscale cloud companies and major tech firms are on pace to spend roughly $600 billion to $725 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 while enterprise monetization of AI products remains limited. Check and other market participants link that spending, together with the IPO pipeline, to reallocations from crypto and other holdings into AI-focused equities.

Check did not offer timing or price forecasts. He framed the current environment as one where capital rotation and IPO demand are reshaping ownership of assets such as bitcoin.