Bollinger: Bitcoin forming ‘W’ that could end bear market

John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, wrote on X on Friday that Bitcoin appears to be completing a “perfectly fractal” W-shaped double bottom. He posted daily and weekly charts showing current price action near the lower Bollinger Band.

A W-shaped reversal involves two swing lows separated by a rejected rally, with a breakout above the interim high indicating a shift to upward momentum. Bollinger pointed to smaller repeating w patterns at the lows and a small m at the apex, and asked, “Will this ‘W’ be the one that breaks the trend?” He also noted that Bitcoin has experienced a series of bullish patterns broken during the downtrend that began in October 2025.

Institutional demand showed signs of returning as US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows after ten consecutive days of outflows. One trader posted figures showing roughly $220 million of inflows on the day the pattern was discussed.

Axel Adler Jr., a contributor at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, wrote that the ETF flows suggest the pressure on the market is easing and that institutional buyers may be re-entering slowly. Trader Daan Crypto Trades described the inflows as “not massive” but said their timing could influence near-term price support, adding that Bitcoin had been holding the roughly $60,000 area despite the prior outflows.

Bollinger has maintained a bullish posture toward Bitcoin in recent months and earlier this year disclosed a new long position through his Bitcoin investment vehicle. Several technical indicators are showing patterns not seen since the 2022 bear market, while many market participants continue to expect a macro bottom in the third quarter of 2026 or later.

Bollinger Bands measure a security’s price relative to a moving average and provide a gauge of volatility: prices near the lower band can indicate an oversold condition, while prices near the upper band may indicate overbought readings. Market participants will watch price behavior around the interim high of the W pattern and ETF flow trends for signs that the longer downtrend may ease.