Bitwise: Iran bitcoin toll could push BTC past $1M

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote on social media that Iran’s proposal to charge $1 in bitcoin per oil barrel for ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, combined with broader geopolitical turmoil, could push bitcoin above $1 million if the asset begins to function as a traditional currency rather than only as a store of value.

Hougan calculated that a $1 bitcoin toll on the volume transiting the strait would generate about $20 million in bitcoin payments per day. He argued the example shows how some states might route payments outside national banking systems they see as weaponized.

He outlined two conditions that would need to align for prices to move materially: a meaningful rise in the chance bitcoin is used in routine currency transactions, and an increase in volatility across the global monetary system. If both occur, Hougan wrote, market participants would have reason to reassess long-term price targets.

Hougan previously estimated bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captured roughly 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market over the next decade. He described the current scenario as an ‘out-of-the-money call option’ and said the addition of currency use could justify revising that target.

He cautioned the scenario is speculative and depends on political decisions, technical integration, market infrastructure, and legal and regulatory responses. Bitwise, an investment firm that offers cryptocurrency products, bases its long-term bitcoin view on limited supply and store-of-value demand; Hougan’s remarks apply a currency-use case to that thesis and quantify how state-level demand could affect outlooks.