Bitwise: Bitcoin a macro canary amid risk-off pressure
Bitwise says Bitcoin fell to cycle lows near $58,000 and often leads declines in risk assets, dropping ahead of equities after stronger US labor data and higher 10-year Treasury yields.
Asset manager Bitwise reported that Bitcoin fell to cycle lows near $58,000 and Ether to about $1,507 after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data and a rise in 10-year Treasury yields. The Nasdaq posted its largest single-day drop in months, and South Korea’s KOSPI briefly halted trading after a steep sell-off in semiconductor stocks.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.53% after reaching roughly 4.68% last month. The labor data reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing and contributed to higher yields that weighed on growth-sensitive assets.
Bitwise described a recurring pattern in which Bitcoin weakens several months before equities and called the token a ‘canary in the macro coal mine.’ The firm said Bitcoin’s continuous 24/7 trading makes it responsive to shifts in liquidity conditions.
A chart cited by the firm compared Bitcoin, the Nasdaq and global M2 liquidity. Global M2 climbed to about $122.6 trillion over the past year while Bitcoin has retraced from highs near $126,000, the chart showed.
On-chain indicators offered a different view of crypto liquidity. Independent analyst Maartunn reported the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) relative strength index at an oversold reading of 13. The SSR measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization against the combined market value of major stablecoins; a low SSR RSI indicates larger stablecoin balances relative to Bitcoin’s value.
Exchange data show combined reserves of major stablecoins near $72 billion, led by about $57.7 billion in USDT and $12 billion in USDC. Those balances have eased from late-2025 peaks above $80 billion but remain high by historical standards. Bitcoin traded near the lower end of its recent range, around $62,000.
Bitwise framed Bitcoin’s decline as part of a broader risk recalibration tied to expectations of higher interest rates remaining in place and shifting liquidity conditions.
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