Bitcoin Tops $81,000 as Trump Weighs Ending Iran War

Bitcoin rose above $81,000 on Thursday after reports that President Trump privately considered formally declaring the Iran war over and after a Federal Reserve governor indicated he could support holding interest rates in September. Oil prices moved higher the same day.

Traders pushed bitcoin above $81,000 once the private discussions about ending the conflict entered public view. Earlier in the week the token fell below $77,000 when the president confirmed fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants linked the price rise to reduced perceived geopolitical risk.

The security picture remained mixed. U.S. military officials reported Iran struck U.S. bases overnight, and Israeli officials indicated they could resume operations in the region. Senior White House aides cautioned further escalation could carry political costs for Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections. Shipping data showed six commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 a day earlier and below a recent 10-day average near 13.

Brent crude traded toward $98 a barrel, a six-week high, reflecting concerns about supply and regional disruption. Earlier in August, Brent fell about 9% intraday when talks about reopening transit through the strait were reported, before recovering after conflicting statements.

On monetary policy, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reported three-month core inflation slowed to 3.05% through July, down from 4.76% in February. He signaled he would lean toward holding rates in September if August confirms the trend while warning a hotter print could change his view. “It may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy,” Waller added. After those remarks, the CME FedWatch Tool showed September rate-hike odds falling to about 50.2% from 63.2% a day earlier.

U.S. Army air-defense deployments in the region have been extended from nine to 12 months for some rotations, and some units could remain into 2027, according to defense officials. The Pentagon is maintaining forces on the ground amid the uncertainty.

Market analysts cautioned the rally could be fragile because both the diplomatic outlook and the inflation path remain unsettled. They said a return to strikes or a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading would likely push bitcoin back toward the week’s low near $76,963.

The Iran conflict has entered its sixth month. No formal declaration ending the conflict has been issued, and Fed policy decisions await August inflation data.