Bitcoin Tops $65K After U.S.-Iran Deal; ETFs Lose $4.8B

Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 after President Trump posted that he had reached a deal with Iran. The cryptocurrency traded near $65,860 and was up about 2.2% over 24 hours and 4% over the past week. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded more than $4.8 billion of outflows since May and about $2.1 billion in June to date.

Trump’s posts described a “Great Deal” with Iran, the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of a U.S. naval blockade. Pakistan’s prime minister confirmed the pact before the U.S. announcement. Traders said many will wait for a formal signing in Switzerland on Friday before fully reassessing geopolitical risk.

Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, described institutional demand as “genuinely soft” and argued that a peace deal alone would not bring capital back to Bitcoin. He indicated that a clean signing in Switzerland combined with an uneventful Federal Reserve policy announcement could push Bitcoin toward $66,000 to $70,000 by the end of the second quarter and left open the possibility of a year-end retest of $100,000 or higher.

Georgii Verbitskii, a derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, observed that Iran-related risk has been partially absorbed and that most negative news appears priced in. He projected a gradual recovery toward the $70,000 range unless a new negative catalyst emerges.

Data show the ETF outflows accelerating in recent weeks. Since May, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost over $4.8 billion in net assets, including roughly $2.1 billion in June. A single-day outflow of about $214 million continued the recent withdrawal trend, which earlier in the month included a 13-day run of redemptions that removed roughly $4.4 billion from those products.

Options and mining indicators pointed to persistent caution. The 25-delta options skew remained negative about 4% to 5%, indicating traders were paying more for downside protection than for upside exposure. The Bitcoin network recorded a downward difficulty adjustment of about 10.09% at block 953,568, one of the larger drops on record; a roughly 15% price decline in June squeezed miner margins and led some hashrate to go offline.

Prediction markets showed continued bearish bets. Users on one platform placed about a 67% probability on Bitcoin’s next major move dropping to $55,000, while contracts on another platform implied a year-end price near $69,000, below Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,080.

Market participants flagged the Federal Reserve’s meeting as a near-term catalyst. A hawkish outcome could increase demand for protective puts and constrain any rally tied to the Iran news. A neutral or dovish Fed decision could support further gains if the Switzerland signing proceeds without complication.