Bitcoin slips toward $62,000; analysts flag $50k–$54k risk

Bitcoin fell roughly 17% from near $74,000 on Monday to an intraday low of $61,556 on Thursday, triggering about $4.47 billion in crypto liquidations over the period. Market figures show roughly $3.82 billion of the wiped positions were bullish bets, roughly 93% of the total. At publication Bitcoin was trading near $63,680, down about 5% on the day. Ether and Solana each fell about 5%.

Derivatives and options data point to greater demand for downside protection. The 30-day 25-delta skew moved from -4.2 to -9.4, indicating higher premiums for put contracts. Bitcoin open interest across derivatives declined from about 282,000 BTC in early June to roughly 265,000 BTC, while measures of net buying versus selling pressure dropped, consistent with new short positions growing as prices fell. The price gap between U.S. exchange listings and offshore venues has been negative for much of 2026 and widened since late May, a pattern consistent with weaker U.S. institutional buying.

Energy markets showed higher volatility as oil prices rose on reports of renewed skirmishes in the Middle East. Market participants cited the geopolitical tensions alongside softer institutional demand as factors increasing risk aversion.

Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, attributed the decline to renewed U.S.–Iran escalation, noting higher market risk aversion and renewed concern about the prospect of future rate increases. He observed that the short-term holder cost basis recently fell below the true mean price, a crossover that has appeared in middle stages of past drawdowns, and identified the realized price near $54,000 as the next reference level if Bitcoin breaks below $60,000. Otychenko estimated a bottom could form in three to six months if historical patterns repeat.

Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, described the $50,000s as a zone where the market might find a ‘true bottom,’ shake out weaker holders and begin building a base for a later recovery.

A prediction market shows users assign about a 70% probability that Bitcoin’s next major move will reach $55,000 rather than $84,000.

The recent sale of 32 BTC by Strategy marked the firm’s first disposal since 2022. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, wrote in a research note that the sale could prompt a larger repurchase and characterized the action as a potential buying opportunity; Kendrick projected Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ether at $4,000 by the end of 2026.

Some liquidity indicators show dip-buying interest. Spot order-book depth at 5% and 10% price moves indicates buy-side support on pullbacks. ETF holdings have declined modestly from about 682,000 BTC to 674,000 BTC since February. On-chain data show long-term holder supply reached a new high this week, a pattern that has appeared in prior drawdowns.

Market metrics signal increased demand for downside protection and weaker institutional flows. Analysts continue to monitor derivatives flows, on-chain measures and ETF holdings for signs of a sustained bottom.