Traders: Bitcoin risks breaking 50-month EMA, echoes 2022

Traders say Bitcoin has begun to retrace price patterns from the 2022 bear market after a recent drop to about $65,362 on Bitstamp. The 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), near $66,628, is a key reference for market participants and is under pressure following the decline.

The 50-month EMA is a long-term moving average that smooths monthly price data to indicate the prevailing trend. Market participants use it to judge macro support and resistance. A sustained break below the line would register as a change in the established trend.

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the 50-month EMA at roughly $66,628 and warned that a breakdown from that level is likely over time. He noted a historical pattern in which the EMA initially holds as support, a relief bounce forms a lower high, and the trend line later fails as the bear cycle progresses.

Trader Leviathan said the current cycle appears to be repeating stages from 2022 and identified $60,000 as a key level. He outlined two outcomes tied to that level: if Bitcoin holds $60,000, liquidity flushes could be complete and a recovery may start; if it loses $60,000, a deeper correction could follow.

Another trader, Killa, projected a period of consolidation lasting weeks, with prices oscillating between about $63,000 and $65,000.

Analytics account Paradox pointed to 2022 as a historical example: Bitcoin lost the monthly 50MA in 2022, reclaimed it five months later, and then rose roughly 715% over the following two years. That sequence is cited by some as a scenario in which a later reclaim of the 50-month EMA could precede strong gains, though timing and conditions are uncertain.

Market structure has shown stress in recent months. February recorded several daily closes below the 50-month trend line before a full breakdown was avoided, and the EMA acted as support again in March and April. Recent volatility also produced billions of dollars in liquidations as leveraged positions were unwound.

Analysts differ on the timing and magnitude of any further moves. Traders continue to monitor the 50-month EMA for indications of whether long-term support will hold or fail.