BTC nominal high failed to surpass key level after inflation adjustment

According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s global head of research, Bitcoin’s all-time high — which exceeded $126,000 nominally in October 2025 — equates to about $99,848 when measured in 2020 U.S. dollars, meaning its inflation-adjusted value fell short of a six-figure real-terms milestone.

Thorn made the observation public in a post on the social platform X and in commentary tied to Galaxy’s research on Bitcoin price dynamics. He explained that adjusting for inflation involves recalculating Bitcoin’s price in the constant purchasing power of a base year — in this case, 2020 — using data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the period from 2020 to late 2025, the CPI’s increase implies the U.S. dollar has lost roughly 20 % of its purchasing power, meaning a dollar today buys fewer goods and services than it did five years ago.

When inflation is factored in, Thorn’s calculation shows that Bitcoin’s real value peaked just below the six-figure mark, at $99,848, rather than above it. The distinction arises because nominal prices are measured in current dollars — which reflect the amount of currency exchanged at the time — whereas inflation-adjusted prices account for changes in the underlying value of the dollar over time.

In practical terms, for Bitcoin’s inflation-adjusted price to truly exceed $100,000 in 2020 dollar terms, its nominal price would have needed to climb to around $125,000 or more before adjustment — a level close to where its peak nominal price was observed, but still short once deflation of the dollar’s value is applied.

Thorn’s analysis draws on monthly CPI data and a constant-dollar methodology that many institutional investors use to compare asset performance over long time horizons. By anchoring the price to a base year before major monetary expansions following the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflation-adjusted view attempts to show how much real purchasing power Bitcoin’s price increase truly represents.

The distinction between nominal and real prices has become more relevant amid broader debates among investors and analysts about Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and its performance relative to traditional assets. Some observers argue that nominal milestones — like the six-figure price — are psychologically important for retail sentiment, while real-terms measures are more relevant for evaluating long-term wealth preservation.

Inflation-adjusted pricing is a method used across asset classes to measure returns in constant purchasing-power terms. It removes the effect of general price level changes in the economy so that asset performance can be compared across years without distortion from currency devaluation. This is often done using the Consumer Price Index or similar inflation measures.