Bitcoin Nears $63.5K as Traders Warn of Monday Weakness

Bitcoin approached $63,450 over the weekend before the weekly close, trading close to its 200-week simple moving average near $62,700 as market participants prepared for possible volatility into the new week. The token rose to about $63,450 on Saturday and then pulled back toward the long-term trend line.

Traders noted thinner order books and lighter trading volume during a U.S. holiday weekend, with visible sell interest above current levels. A commentator on X wrote, “Seeing stronger passive supply here pressing price from above,” pointing to resistance in the order book.

Derivatives data showed roughly $167 million in crypto liquidations in the prior 24 hours as prices climbed. A trader on X described the price action as a “classic short squeeze,” adding that many short positions were forced to cover as price moved higher. The trader highlighted the $62,600 to $62,700 zone as the key area to watch for support.

Another market participant cautioned about early-week patterns, writing on X that “7/7 Mondays have been absolutely terrible for $BTC” and questioning whether the pattern would repeat next week.

On the macro front, U.S. nonfarm payrolls released last week came in below expectations. The CME Group FedWatch Tool showed about an 80% probability the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its July 29 meeting. A trading firm noted that softer Consumer Price Index readings would be needed for broader confirmation of a front-end dovish repricing.

Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds shifted after several sessions of outflows. The ETFs recorded about $224 million of inflows on Thursday, ending a six-session outflow streak and following roughly $2.4 billion of redemptions in the previous period.

Market participants pointed to the 200-week moving average as a widely watched long-term reference. Sustained trading above that level is viewed by some investors as bullish, while a rejection there could renew selling pressure. With thinner liquidity during holiday hours and leverage still active in futures markets, participants noted that price swings can be amplified by forced liquidations.

Traders said the immediate factors to monitor are whether the 200-week average holds as support, whether short positions face further squeezes, and incoming U.S. economic data that could influence rate expectations. Given recent patterns of weak Mondays, some market participants planned to watch early-week trading closely for potential weakness.