Bitcoin may test $55K as 21Shares keeps $100K year-end

On June 5, Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said bitcoin was testing the $60,000 support level and could drop to about $55,000 if that floor breaks. He maintained a $100,000 target for the end of the year.

Mena pointed to repeated buying interest around $60,000 that has acted as a short-term floor. He said that if those bids disappear, bitcoin would likely revisit roughly $55,000, a level that matches the coin’s realized price — the average on-chain cost basis of holders.

The realized-price area near $55,000 has previously served as a support zone during major declines, including late 2018, the March 2020 pandemic sell-off, the 2022 FTX collapse and through the summer of 2024. Mena noted that more than half of bitcoin holders are currently underwater, increasing the significance of a retest at that cost basis.

He pointed to recent selling by MicroStrategy and remarks around CEO Michael Saylor as factors weighing on sentiment. Mena recalled that MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC in December 2022 and repurchased 810 BTC two days later, and he noted that the company’s recent activity challenges the view of its holdings as permanent capital.

Macro data added pressure on crypto markets this week. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, above expectations of 85,000; the unemployment rate held at 4.3% and April payrolls were revised up by 64,000. Mena said those figures reduce near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and that investors are pricing that into risk assets including bitcoin.

Mena described bitcoin’s stability near $62,000 as evidence of underlying strength and reaffirmed the $100,000 year-end target. He wrote: “$100k remains our year-end target, and the need for a non-sovereign, censorship-resistant asset that can serve as a potential hedge against debasement is more important than ever.”

He listed several conditions that could support a move higher by year-end: a resolution of the conflict with Iran, easing energy prices, reduced inflationary pressure and restored room for the Fed to cut rates. Mena said that if those conditions occur and bitcoin holds current support, a retest of higher resistance levels would be more likely.