Bitcoin may drop to $50k–$55k if $60k support fails

Bitcoin fell about 15% week-to-date to around $62,500 and briefly dropped toward $61,000 before a partial rebound. The decline marks the cryptocurrency’s weakest weekly performance since November 2022. Traders are watching the 200-week simple moving average, located near $61,800, as price trades close to that line.

Technical analysts say a decisive break below $60,000 would open room for lower targets. Analyst Radz posted that $55,000 could represent the “worst” downside scenario if the 200-week SMA continues to act as long-term support. Radz added that the line has marked cycle lows in prior years and that recent tests have preceded recoveries.

A bear-flag formation on shorter-term charts has broken its lower trend line on rising volume. Projecting the height of the prior decline from the breakdown point yields a measured target near $50,000–$51,000. That zone also coincides with previous horizontal support levels.

Onchain data align with those technical targets. Glassnode’s MVRV-based pricing bands show Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,740. The same dataset identifies another onchain support around $50,560. Those levels form an approximate support band from about $50,000 to $54,000.

On the weekly chart, a cup-and-handle pattern is visible: a rounded top followed by a smaller rebound inside a handle. Price is weakening near the lower end of the handle, close to the 200-week SMA and the $60,000 area. A confirmed break below that handle would produce a technical target close to $33,000.

Volume increased during the break below the bear flag’s trend line, a factor market participants monitor for conviction. Traders will watch whether buyers can push Bitcoin back above the flag’s lower boundary or whether selling continues toward the $50,000–$55,000 band over the next sessions.

The 200-week SMA is commonly referenced by long-term investors to identify major cycle support. Realized price represents the average price at which the current circulating supply last moved onchain and can act as a reference point during corrections.