Bitcoin Enters High-Risk Zone as US Spot ETF Outflows Mount
Swissblock’s Bitcoin risk index rose to 33/100 after U.S. spot ETFs recorded sustained net outflows, reflecting growing institutional selling pressure and higher market risk.
Swissblock announced Tuesday that its Bitcoin risk index climbed to 33 out of 100 after U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded sustained net outflows, a shift the firm linked to rising institutional selling pressure.
The index measures the balance between selling pressure and buying demand. After a period of accumulation in March and April, Swissblock said flows moved into distribution in May, which pushed the score higher.
Swissblock warned that spot ETF demand is no longer absorbing selling pressure effectively and that, without renewed support from these funds, the risk index could continue to rise. “Every time the Risk Index signals that selling pressure is structurally overwhelming the market, what sits underneath is institutional distribution,” the firm added.
On-chain analytics provider Glassnode reported that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows on nearly every trading day since May 7, calling it “a persistent institutional sell signal now running for more than two weeks.” Glassnode said, “This steady drip of outflow continues to add to the supply side without a visible demand offset.”
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, described the broader crypto market as being “in a holding pattern” and noted spot ETF flows exceeded $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, a figure he said points to continued sensitivity in institutional risk appetite.
Risk perceptions rose Tuesday after reports that U.S. forces launched strikes on Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines. U.S. Central Command described the operations as actions in “self-defense” intended to protect U.S. troops. Bitcoin fell about 1%, moving from just over $77,000 to below $76,500 on Coinbase, though the token has traded in a range for nearly four months.
Swissblock emphasized the role of institutional flows in determining how much selling pressure the market can absorb and cautioned that ETF outflows remove a source of demand that had supported prices earlier in the year.
Market participants are watching daily ETF flows and on-chain indicators for signs that buying demand returns or that selling pressure stabilizes.
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