Bitcoin edges up as markets eye Fed rate odds

Bitcoin traded around $64,400 on Wednesday, rising about 1.6% after bouncing from a $62,684 low set in the prior session as traders adjusted positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement at 2 p.m. EDT and the chair’s press conference.

The rebound followed a brief dip below $63,000 that buyers defended. Price reclaimed the $64,000 area but momentum slowed as many market participants avoided adding exposure before the Fed’s statement. Futures and prediction markets placed roughly a 30% probability on an additional rate increase.

Market data showed daily trading volume between $24 billion and $25 billion, a market capitalization near $1.29 trillion and about 20.06 million bitcoin in circulation. The recent recovery recovered only part of July’s losses; bitcoin remains roughly 45% to 49% below its October 2025 record just above $126,000 after testing $66,000–$67,000 earlier in the month.

Technical indicators were mixed. Short-term exponential moving averages began to trend higher, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continued to act as overhead resistance. The 14-day relative strength index sat near 51. Traders identified support in the $62,500–$63,300 range, immediate resistance in the $64,500–$65,000 band and a larger hurdle around $66,800–$67,000.

Onchain metrics showed network hashrate just below 900 EH/s. Transaction counts were relatively high but skewed toward smaller OP_RETURN transactions rather than large transfers. The 30-day average of active addresses drifted near 600,000. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded inflows earlier in July but posted outflows of roughly $11 million to $50 million in recent sessions.

Derivatives data indicated lower leverage. Perpetual futures open interest stood near $65 billion, about 20% below last September’s peak. Binance, Bybit and Gate accounted for roughly 63% of perpetual open interest, with Binance holding about $22.86 billion, or roughly 35% of the market. Perpetual contracts tied to traditional assets expanded to more than $2 billion since late May but remained a small portion of the overall derivatives market.

Macro factors included 10-year Treasury yields in the mid-to-high 4% range and elevated real yields. After the Fed decision, attention will turn to Thursday’s GDP and personal consumption expenditures inflation reports. Corporate earnings, including from Coinbase and Strategy, will provide additional data on institutional demand. Onchain indicators did not show broad forced selling, and market participants said they would watch macro policy and institutional flows for guidance on the next directional moves.