Bitcoin breaks 7-month resistance after Iran opens Hormuz

Bitcoin rose 2.7% on Tuesday to trade above $77,000, opening at $75,172 and pushing the daily candle to $77,205, with an intraday high of $78,384 before a modest pullback. The price advance crossed a descending trendline that had capped rallies since October 2025, when Bitcoin reached about $126,000.

The market reaction followed Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the current ceasefire. The statement coincided with drops in crude oil prices and gains in risk assets, including publicly traded companies that hold Bitcoin.

Technical indicators show mixed readings. The 50-day exponential moving average remains below the 200-day EMA, a configuration often referred to as a death cross, while the gap between those averages has narrowed since January. The Average Directional Index is 18.1, a level that signals weak trend strength. The Relative Strength Index is 67.7, below the 70 level typically considered overbought. A squeeze momentum indicator indicates that price compression has eased and that positive momentum is present.

The broken descending line now lies near $74,000–$75,000 and is being watched as immediate support. The Myriad prediction market currently prices a 69% probability that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 before falling to $55,000. A separate Myriad contract assigns roughly a 6% chance that Bitcoin will set a new all-time high before July.

Bitcoin has traded under pressure through much of 2026 amid regional tensions, inflation concerns, a stronger dollar and tight liquidity, producing a downward trajectory since the October 2025 peak. Short-term indicators show positive momentum while the 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA.