Bitcoin Tests $78.4K EMA, $81K ETF Resistance Amid Iran Tensions

Bitcoin is trading around the 21-week exponential moving average, roughly $78,400, after closing last week with a green weekly candle despite a late sell-off that briefly pushed price below $74,000. Prices showed a modest recovery at the start of the new week.

Traders are watching a cluster of nearby resistance levels led by the 21-week EMA. Analyst Rekt Capital flagged a rejection at that trend line and cautioned that a failure to hold could send Bitcoin back toward the top of the double bottom near $73,000; a successful retest of that area would confirm the breakout in his view.

Other market participants outlined alternative scenarios. CrypNuevo projected Bitcoin may trade in a range capped near $80,000 for the next month. Michaël van de Poppe highlighted an open gap in CME Group futures near $77,300 that could attract buying. Decode’s Elliott Wave work identifies $81,000 as a narrowing resistance level it calls the ‘final boss.’

U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows through Friday, with more than 25,000 BTC added over five days and a single-day net inflow exceeding $660 million. ETF holdings in BTC terms reached their highest level since November 2025. The ETFs’ average entry price is estimated at roughly $81,000.

Onchain metrics show short-term holders, defined as addresses holding coins up to six months, have a cost basis near $83,500. The short-term holder spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, is hovering around breakeven. A CryptoQuant contributor noted that a sustained SOPR move above 1 would indicate short-term holders are realizing profits, historically a positive sign if profit-taking is not excessive.

Glassnode’s true market mean (TMM), which excludes long-dormant or lost coins to measure active-holder profitability, sits near $78,200. Bitcoin has traded below TMM for more than 75 days. Glassnode’s analysis notes that since 2016 similar sub‑TMM periods have produced a range of outcomes, with some episodes lasting days and others lasting several months; the 2018 and 2022 episodes took multiple months to bottom.

Diplomatic breakdowns between the U.S. and Iran coincided with a rebound in oil toward $90 per barrel and S&P 500 futures opening the week down about 0.6%. Market participants are monitoring oil prices and the U.S. Consumer Price Index for April, due May 12, for potential effects on inflation and risk assets.

Market participants say they are watching whether price reclaims the 21-week EMA and the TMM, and how ETF flows and geopolitical developments influence near-term trading.