Arthur Hayes bets $100K HYPE will beat a top-10 crypto

Arthur Hayes offered investor Kyle Samani a $100,000 charitable wager that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token will outperform any current top‑10 cryptocurrency in U.S. dollar terms by Dec. 31, 2026.

Hayes described the terms as “a gentleman’s charitable bet,” saying he will donate $100,000 to a charity of Samani’s choosing if HYPE does not beat any other current top‑ten coin from now through year‑end. If Samani accepts, he may pick any cryptocurrency that is currently among the top ten by market value for the head‑to‑head comparison.

Hayes co‑founded Bitmex and runs investment firm Maelstrom. Public wallet activity tied to Hayes showed a sale near $54 and a later re‑entry around $62. He has publicly suggested a $150 price target for HYPE and has taken large positions in the token.

HYPE reached a record near $70 on May 31. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission cleared the first U.S. perpetual futures contract tied to HYPE earlier in the rally. Hyperliquid directs roughly 99% of its platform fees into continuous HYPE purchases through a mechanism called the Assistance Fund, and the company carried out roughly $1.16 billion in buybacks as the token hit new highs.

Hyperliquid runs an on‑chain order book for perpetual futures. HYPE is the exchange’s native token and benefits from fee recycling into token purchases. Critics warn that the buyback structure could weaken if trading volumes decline, which could reduce the built‑in demand that has supported recent price moves.

Market participants view the planned U.S. spot ETF for HYPE as a potential source of institutional inflows; such inflows could affect HYPE’s price relative to other large‑cap tokens. A broader market downturn or weak ETF adoption would present a different test for the token’s relative performance.

Samani has not publicly accepted the wager. The contest will be decided by U.S. dollar returns through Dec. 31, 2026, with the loser making the six‑figure charity donation indicated in the bet.