Analysts: Ether could drop 20% to $1,725 on inflows

Analysts warn Ether faces downside risk after a surge in exchange-held supply and consecutive spot ETF outflows.

Data from CryptoQuant showed Binance’s Ether reserves rose from 3.36 million ETH to 3.84 million ETH between May 5 and May 9, coinciding with a pause in Ether’s recovery near $2,400. Ether had climbed about 40% from lows below $1,800 but slipped roughly 7% from $2,390 to $2,260 in early May.

Exchange net position change jumped by 585,000 ETH on May 13, the largest daily inflow since December 2025, when Ether traded near $3,000. That December inflow preceded a 42% fall to about $1,750 in February. Large inflows to exchanges generally reflect transfers from cold storage or redemptions of institutional products, which can increase available supply on exchanges.

Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows for four consecutive days, totaling roughly $190 million over the period, indicating reduced investor demand in U.S. ETF products.

On the charts, Ether breached the lower trend line of a rising wedge near $2,280. A daily close below that level would confirm the pattern’s breakdown and point to a measured target around $1,725, near a 22% decline from recent levels. Analyst ShangoTrades wrote on X that the break is “starting to become a concern.”

CryptoQuant analyst BorisD observed that inflows accelerated while upward price continuation stalled. Analyst PelinayPA said short rebounds may be used for distribution and be followed by high volatility and renewed downside. Another analyst, CryptoBullGod, identified a weekly bear-flag pattern with a measured target near $1,280.

Market participants tracking Ether should monitor exchange reserves, spot ETF flows and price action around $2,280 for signs of a confirmed breakdown or a relief rally. These comments reflect current data and chart patterns and do not constitute investment advice.