18-Year Housing Cycle Points to 2025–26 Peak
Macro analyst Jason Pizzino projects a 2025–26 peak in an 18-year U.S. housing cycle and cites weak July housing data, including a 10.5% drop in new-home sales.
Macro analyst Jason Pizzino says an 18-year U.S. housing cycle that began around 2011–12 is likely to peak in 2025–26 and could precede broader market weakness. His model uses roughly 220 years of U.S. sales data and places a potential housing trough near 2029–30.
Pizzino points to recent housing data to support the timeline. U.S. home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June but have fallen in real terms for a 13th consecutive month. July new-home sales declined 10.5% and the median new-home price dropped to $393,800, its lowest level in five years. Builder confidence remains low at 35 on a scale where 50 is neutral.
A central element of Pizzino’s analysis is the performance of homebuilder D.R. Horton. The company tended to peak before the broader housing market in prior cycles. Using that historical pattern, a D.R. Horton peak in late 2024 could point to a broader stock-market top in late 2026 or early 2027. D.R. Horton recently closed near $142.75; a sustained break below about $130 would, in Pizzino’s view, strengthen the signal.
Equity markets and policy expectations are part of the backdrop. The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 on Friday, roughly 1% below its August 13 high. Strong August jobs data have pushed market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September to around 60%, a factor that could affect borrowing costs for homebuyers and builders.
Cryptocurrency performance adds complexity to market dynamics. Bitcoin has risen to about $79,700 from a July low near $57,700 and has reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Pizzino presents a scenario in which Bitcoin could reach about $120,000 from the July low, while reaching $180,000 would be harder if credit tightens.
Pizzino wrote, “Once everyone’s in, you’re at the peak.” Analyst Benjamin Cowen advised a steady approach to investing and offered: “I buy index funds every single month… even if I think we’re going to have a correction.” Pizzino frames the cycle as a window for caution rather than a fixed timetable.
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