Zuckerberg directs Meta team to build ‘Arena’ prediction app

Mark Zuckerberg has ordered a small team at Meta to develop a standalone prediction markets app codenamed Arena. The initial release will use a video game-style points system and may add real-money wagering in future versions.

People familiar with the plans identified Arena as a top internal priority. The app is being developed to run separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger and to use Meta’s combined audience of about 3.56 billion daily active users for distribution.

The points-first design is intended to keep the launch outside the scope of U.S. gambling and derivatives rules that apply to cash betting. A shift to real-money wagering would put the product under oversight from regulators that cover betting and derivatives markets.

Arena is intended to compete with existing U.S. prediction platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket operates on blockchain technology and settles contracts on-chain. Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange, has processed tens of billions of dollars in contract volume and previously challenged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over political-event contracts.

Meta plans for Arena to be a separate app so the company can test engagement and retention specific to prediction markets before deciding on broader integration. The project is part of Meta’s efforts to expand revenue beyond advertising, including investments in AI tools and subscription services.

Development is ongoing and details about features, timing and rollout remain limited. Meta declined to comment. People familiar with the project described the points-based mechanics, the choice to operate independently of Meta’s core apps and the potential for later real-money wagering as the central elements under consideration.