XRP risks 40% drop vs Bitcoin amid ETF inflows
XRP could fall about 40% against Bitcoin after a weekly descending-triangle breakdown, while US spot XRP ETFs logged nine straight days of net inflows totaling $73.78 million.
The XRP/BTC ratio closed below a weekly descending-triangle lower trend line at 0.000096 BTC, producing a measured downside target near 0.000011 BTC, about 40.5% below current levels.
The triangle formed since late 2024 as the pair traded with declining highs and a flat support level. The downside target is calculated by measuring the triangle’s vertical height and subtracting that distance from the point of the breakdown.
Technical analyst ChartNerd posted on X that ‘$XRP/BTC looks edgy’ and cautioned that a loss of support at 0.000091 BTC could lead to additional declines for both the XRP/BTC ratio and the XRP/USD pair.
The relative strength index for the pair is near 33, in oversold territory. That RSI level previously coincided with macro lows in mid- and late-2024. Some technical indicators and on-chain metrics have recently shown signs consistent with bottoming.
US-based spot XRP ETFs recorded $3.89 million in net inflows on Thursday, extending a nine-day streak that totaled $73.78 million, according to SoSoValue. Cumulative inflows into those funds are about $1.28 billion and assets under management are roughly $1.1 billion.
XRP has declined about 22% so far in 2026 and has underperformed Bitcoin over the same period.
Analyst Don Digital Finance wrote on X that ‘ $XRP ETF inflows continue,’ calling the activity ‘steady institutional demand as accumulation continues despite sideways price action.’ Analyst Ledger Man wrote on X that ‘Institutional demand is rising fast as big money continues flowing into XRP exposure.’
Key technical levels cited by market observers include the breakdown point at 0.000096 BTC and the support area near 0.000091 BTC. Traders are watching RSI readings and daily ETF flow data for updated signals.
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