Woo: Bitcoin Must Clear $79K, Hold $65K to Confirm Bottom

On April 27, on-chain analyst Willy Woo identified two price thresholds that must be met for Bitcoin’s recent trading to be considered a market bottom: a clean break above the recent investor cost basis near $79,000 and sustained support around $65,000.

The cost basis refers to the approximate price where recent investors entered positions. Woo framed the next phase of the market around investor positioning rather than short-term momentum, saying a move above that entry level would be the next test for the asset.

Woo wrote, “The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors ($79K).” He placed a 30% probability on Bitcoin achieving that breakout on the current attempt.

He added that if Bitcoin pushes above $79,000, the market must then avoid dropping below roughly $65,000 to strengthen the case for a structural bottom. “After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above $65K and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases significantly,” he wrote.

Woo noted several market signals that have improved since January: capital flows into Bitcoin have turned positive, liquidity has started to repair, spot market activity has remained relatively steady, and derivatives markets are making another recovery attempt after stress on Oct. 10. He said those changes support a potential bottoming process but do not complete it.

In earlier commentary on April 5, Woo outlined a three-step pattern he sees at the end of bear markets: price breaks above the cost basis of recent investors; passive hope turns into active buying; and sustained demand lifts the cost-basis trend higher. He cautioned the market is “not a bottom yet” and that many months of sideways trading would be required to build a structural floor.

On timing, Woo wrote the next three to six weeks will be important for market structure as Bitcoin attempts to form a bottom.

Under Woo’s analysis, the bottom case remains unconfirmed until Bitcoin both clears the $79,000 investor cost-basis level and maintains support near $65,000, with further price and flow developments needed to change that assessment.