White House lowers expectations ahead of jobs report

The White House has begun lowering market expectations ahead of Wednesday’s January jobs report. Officials in the Trump administration have repeatedly cautioned in recent days that job growth may fall short of forecasts and urged investors not to draw premature conclusions about the health of the economy.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said there was “no need to panic,” noting that the labor market may show “slightly smaller numbers” than Wall Street expects. He attributed a potentially soft result to a combination of “rising productivity” and a “notable contraction in the labor force,” which he said was driven by “illegal migrants leaving the country.”

President Trump also alluded to the issue. In an interview with Fox Business, he pointed to cuts in government spending and said he had “fired hundreds of thousands of workers,” while the economy “still shows good employment figures.” He added that the numbers could have been “the best ever” if he had not enacted the cuts or, conversely, if he had expanded the federal workforce.

Uncertainty around the report is heightened by a five-day publication delay caused by the recent partial government shutdown. Economists’ consensus forecast suggests around 70,000 jobs were created in January, but estimates vary widely – from a high of 135,000 to a low of minus 10,000.

Several indicators point to worsening labor-market momentum. The ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of just 22,000 jobs – half of expectations. The JOLTS survey recorded job openings falling to 2020 levels, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported the highest number of announced layoffs since 2009. In December, the economy added only 50,000 jobs, making 2025 the weakest hiring year since the pandemic.

Strategists say the White House’s tone is an attempt to soften market reaction should the report come in weak. Investors worry that a combination of low job growth and high uncertainty could intensify recession discussions, though the administration maintains that underlying economic trends remain stable.