VanEck CEO: Bitcoin price nearing bottom as halving cycle fades

Jan van Eck, chief executive of VanEck, believes Bitcoin is approaching a bottom as the current four-year halving cycle nears its end. In an interview on March 2, he projected a gradual recovery later this year. At the time, Bitcoin traded around $68,400.

He argued that recent price action has tracked the supply schedule more than near-term fundamentals, pointing to the programmed reduction in new coins issued to miners roughly every four years.

Van Eck said the firm’s model centers on Bitcoin’s hard 21 million supply limit and its scheduled reward cuts. Miner payouts are cut in half about every four years, which he argues sets the market’s rhythm. He pointed to a pattern of three up years followed by a down year, with 2026 as the decline year. Based on that, he believes the market is carving out a bottom now.

The four-year pattern has become a subject of debate as institutional participation increases. Factors in that discussion include demand from spot exchange-traded funds, a weaker U.S. dollar, and clearer rules in several markets.

Bitcoin’s latest rebound unfolded during heightened tensions in the Middle East. After air strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, Iran launched strikes in response against Israel. Linking crypto to cross-border transfers in such settings, van Eck remarked:

If we wanted to move money to good actors, we would want to use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.

He kept the focus on the supply cadence as the anchor for his outlook. The halving reduces new coin issuance about every four years and will continue until the 21 million cap is reached. In his view, that schedule has aligned with multi-year pricing patterns. He expects stabilization as the cycle progresses, while acknowledging that macro conditions and flows from new investment products could influence the pace of any recovery.