U.S. Shutdown odds spike on Polymarket after Schumer funding warning

The spike came as Washington’s funding fight re-enters focus and as crypto industry lobbying around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, often shortened to the CLARITY Act, remains tied to congressional scheduling. The same update that referenced Polymarket’s odds surge said a prior shutdown in October and November had been blamed for delaying progress on the bill.

Schumer’s comments were paired with criticism of current DHS language, with him describing the proposal as insufficient to constrain immigration enforcement and saying he planned to vote against it. He also issued a statement reacting to an incident in Minneapolis in which federal agents reportedly shot and killed a 37-year-old man, using it to argue for tighter oversight.

President Donald Trump also raised the possibility of another shutdown in remarks to Fox Business earlier in the week, framing the risk as a partisan standoff and saying the country could end up in what he called a “Democrat shutdown.”

The shutdown chatter is landing while the CLARITY Act’s outlook is still unsettled. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said earlier this month that the latest version would be worse than the current status quo and that the company would rather see no bill than a bad one, after which the measure’s prospects drew more mixed reactions across the industry.

Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn also flagged unresolved disagreements over stablecoin yields and rewards, noting that banking lobby groups have argued such features could weaken traditional banks’ competitiveness. He said there were not yet clear signs of a compromise that could revive momentum, and pointed to a potential 4–6 week window before another attempt at committee markup.