U.S. shows strength as crypto debates market bottom

The United States presented a cluster of diplomatic and market developments this week, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum signed at the Versailles summit and the largest initial public offering in history for SpaceX. President Trump signed the memorandum and declared “oil down, stocks up” after arriving at the G7 meeting and saying “I’m the boss.” The dollar traded above 100 on major indexes while oil hovered near $76 and both gold and silver posted weekly declines. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to the highest level since 1995, leaving the dollar near 161 yen. New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled an end to formal forward guidance at his first FOMC meeting.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin traded close to $60,000 and most alternative tokens recorded steeper losses, prompting debate among analysts and influencers about whether the recent pullback marked a market bottom. Standard Chartered maintained year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ether, calling the crypto winter over. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong wrote that “the bottom is in” and added that market swings are “never as good or bad as it seems.”

Technical analysts pointed to mixed signals. One trader flagged the retest of $60,000 as a favorable entry after a bounce. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode described improving liquidity, stronger passive bids and patient ETF holders as signs of a market in repair. Another analyst noted that Bitcoin entered higher-timeframe oversold faster than in prior cycles, while a different strategist warned that an additional large down candle could trigger more selling.

Some tokens bucked the wider declines. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token reached a fresh all-time high, rising about 11.6%. Tokens tied to decentralized AI narratives rose after a public clash involving Anthropic and U.S. regulators; TAO climbed roughly 25% and Venice’s VVV increased about 15% on the headlines. Critics questioned Venice’s privacy claims and suggested the project relied heavily on marketing.

Decentralized finance continued to face technical and security challenges described by some market participants as an “AI exploit-pocalypse.” Supporters countered that machine learning tools could eventually help detect and fix vulnerabilities. An Electric Capital partner called confidential DeFi “real” and affirmed that it “works.” A payments product co-founder said stablecoin transactions can be structured with escrow, chargebacks and dispute resolution using smart contracts.

Institutional coverage and strategy notes appeared this week. Standard Chartered initiated coverage on Uniswap with a $100 target for 2030 based on expectations for tokenized assets to expand. A market-data chief outlined criteria for altcoins that could survive, including major internet companies adding token layers, DeFi services with real revenue and alignment with broader financial trends. Solana leadership proposed allowing SOL stakers to vote on reducing inflation through the SIMD-550 update.

Bearish developments included a report from a major bank that Bitcoin had traded below an estimated $78,000 production cost for five months, leaving about 20% of miners technically unprofitable. Michael Saylor’s Strategy token STRC experienced a sharp depeg, trading as low as $82.50 before a partial recovery and falling roughly 15% over two weeks; a resurfaced video showed Saylor saying he designed STRC with ChatGPT. Market participants discussed scenarios involving pressure on MicroStrategy stock and potential capital raises to address investor concerns.

Cardano’s community voted down a $2 million budget for its 2026 summit, after which founder Charles Hoskinson warned of potential failures in the ecosystem, posted “I’m taking a break. TTYL,” and announced migration of community discussions from X to Discord. Some long-time contributors criticized the technology and urged reorganization.

Regulatory developments in Europe added pressures on trading platforms and stablecoins. Reports indicated that an application under Markets in Crypto-Assets rules in Greece faces likely rejection, which could prevent a major exchange from serving EU clients. Tether’s USDT was reported to be pushed off regulated EU trading venues for lacking authorization under the region’s rules.

Market participants remained divided at week’s end. Several analysts and on-chain observers reported signs of repair in liquidity and order flow, while others pointed to liquidity shortages, regulatory actions and structural issues as factors that could extend volatility.