US September flash PMIs due, markets eye EUR/USD reaction

S&P Global will release preliminary September US Purchasing Managers’ Indices at 13:45 GMT. The report includes three measures: Manufacturing, Services and a Composite PMI. The indices are compiled from monthly surveys of senior private-sector executives and cover production, new orders, exports, employment, inventories and capacity utilisation. Readings above 50 indicate expansion; readings below 50 indicate contraction.

Economists and traders expect the Manufacturing PMI to ease to 53.5 from 53.9 and the Services PMI to fall to 56 from 56.5. The composite PMI, a weighted combination of the two, will be watched for a broader signal on private-sector activity. Flash PMIs are released before many official data points and are used by market participants to update near-term positioning.

Traders are watching EUR/USD for a reaction to the flash readings. Pablo Piovano, a senior FX analyst, warned that the pair’s break below the 200-day simple moving average near 1.1620 leaves the path open for further losses. He identified the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.1526 and 1.1542 as initial upside resistance, followed by the 200-day SMA and the August high at 1.1711. On the downside, Piovano noted initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1353 and the 2026 low at 1.1324.

“Momentum indicators also favour extra declines as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 31 level and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 29 is indicative of a forceful trend,” Piovano observed.

Investors will compare the flash PMIs with other economic data released in coming days to refine short-term expectations for growth and inflation. The September flash readings follow recent PMIs that have shown continued expansion in US private-sector activity.