U.S. labor market weakens as unemployment nears 4.4%
The U.S. labor market is showing signs of strain – unemployment could reach 4.4%, the highest level in four years.
According to estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the unemployment rate in October stood at 4.36%, up slightly from 4.35% a month earlier. While the increase appears marginal, it signals a softening trend in the job market.
The official employment report is expected later today, November 7, 2025, at 14:30 CET.
Hiring has slowed, while layoffs and temporary furloughs have increased. The trend coincides with a month-long U.S. government shutdown that disrupted the release of official labor data.
In the absence of government statistics, private firms are filling the gap. Revelio Labs estimates that the U.S. lost about 9,100 jobs in October, with government agencies cutting 22,200 positions and the retail sector trimming another 8,500. Only education and healthcare saw growth, adding around 22,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, announced layoffs surged 183% to 153,074 – the highest October figure in 22 years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The main drivers are cost-cutting measures and the adoption of artificial intelligence, which continues to replace manual labor.
Among major corporations, Amazon confirmed plans in October to cut up to 14,000 jobs globally. In total, announced layoffs in the U.S. since the start of the year have surpassed 1 million – 65% higher than during the same period in 2024.
Despite seasonal hiring ahead of the holidays, the number of new jobs remains 25% below last year’s level. Analysts attribute the decline to high Federal Reserve interest rates, tariff uncertainty, and slowing corporate investment.
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