U.S. March job gains top forecasts, Bitcoin slips as rate-cut bets fade

The United States added 178,000 jobs in March, exceeding a 65,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. February payrolls were revised to a decline of 133,000 from an initially reported 92,000 drop. The March increase was the largest monthly addition since March 2025.

The figures were released Friday amid heightened geopolitical tensions following the start of a conflict involving Iran at the end of February. Some Federal Reserve officials in recent days noted inflation risks linked to the conflict and flagged uncertainty around the labor outlook.

Bitcoin fell after the data, slipping below $67,000 and recently trading near $66,800. Volatility increased around the expiration of about $2.1 billion in Bitcoin and Ether options on Friday. For Bitcoin, $68,000 was the max pain level, the strike where option holders would face the largest aggregate losses at expiration.

Interest-rate expectations shifted after the report. Pricing in interest-rate futures implied that rates were likely to remain unchanged through October, with single-digit probabilities assigned to cuts at meetings through that month. Markets put the odds of a December cut at 12.8%.

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate reduction remains possible this year if the labor market weakens.

Prediction markets followed by crypto traders showed a 55% chance of a cut by the October meeting and a 64% chance by December.

The report arrives ahead of the April FOMC meeting, where officials will review recent inflation and employment data.