US jobless claims estimated at 227,543

US initial jobless claims were estimated at a seasonally adjusted 227,543 for the week ended Nov. 8, a slight decline from 228,899 a week earlier, indicating steady labor conditions.

The estimate, calculated by Haver Analytics, aligns with projections from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Nationwide. The Labor Department is expected to resume publishing the official weekly claims report next Thursday following the end of the federal shutdown.

The 43-day shutdown halted the collection and release of most economic data. States continued to gather unemployment filings, and Haver and several bank economists produced weekly estimates using the department’s methods. Massachusetts data were unavailable and were imputed consistent with standard practice.

The estimates suggest a labor market in a holding pattern often described as “no hire, no fire,” with limited evidence of rising layoffs. At the same time, companies have increased announcements of job cuts, including at Amazon, which some analysts expect could appear in claims data next year.

Continuing claims, which track the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, were put at 1.942 million for the week ended Nov. 1, down from 1.956 million, according to Goldman Sachs, with similar figures from Haver, JPMorgan and Nationwide.

Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan, noted: “Initial claims remain pretty similar to recent years around this time, and don’t give the sense of any alarming rise in layoffs, especially when you consider that they may have been lifted slightly by the government shutdown, which was starting to become more disruptive this month.”

Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, wrote: “Not much has changed over the past six weeks. While this is not great news, as the labor market was tepid at best prior to the shutdown, it should help to allay the worst fears of policymakers and financial market participants alike.”

Several Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled caution on further rate cuts, citing inflation concerns and signs of labor stabilization after two reductions earlier this year. Economists report softer hiring demand versus early this year, pointing to economic uncertainty, import tariffs and the impact of artificial intelligence on staffing.

They also point to a reduced labor supply following raids on undocumented immigrants, which has weighed on hiring at smaller firms. The government is expected to publish the delayed September employment report next week, though a fuller read on labor conditions may take time.

As we covered previously, the 43-day federal shutdown that began Oct. 1 ended after the House approved a spending bill 222–209, the Senate passed it on Nov. 10, and President Trump signed it, restarting government operations. The law extends most agency funding through Jan. 30 and grants full-year appropriations for military construction, veterans affairs, the legislative branch and Agriculture. Roughly 700,000 employees were furloughed and many others worked without pay.