UK black-market gambling ads to eclipse licensed spend by 2028

The World Advertising Research Center published an analysis on April 21 projecting that unlicensed online gambling operators will outspend regulated UK firms on advertising by 2028. WARC forecasts unlicensed ad spend will rise from £844.7 million in 2025-26 to £934.2 million in 2026-27 and exceed £1 billion by 2028.

WARC expects licensed UK operators to reduce advertising spend by 9.2% to about £1.05 billion in 2025-26 and to fall a further 2.6% to roughly £1.022 billion in 2026-27. The firm projects overall UK gambling ad spend will reach about £1.9 billion in 2026, with most growth coming from operators not licensed in the UK.

The analysis flagged sponsorship as an earlier crossover. WARC forecasts unlicensed operators will account for more than half of gambling sponsorship spending by 2026-27. Gambling sponsorship outlays have risen from £158 million in 2019-20 to a projected £260 million in 2026-27, and the regulated sector’s share peaked in 2021-22 before declining.

Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, described the findings as “a tipping point where illegal operators overtake licensed firms in advertising spend, fundamentally reshaping what consumers see.” She warned that additional limits on licensed advertising would increase the relative share of unlicensed providers and called for stronger action against illegal operators.

Policy and tax changes form part of the backdrop. The Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40% on April 1. The Remote Betting Duty is scheduled to rise from 15% to 25% in April 2027. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimated in November 2025 that those tax changes could divert about £500 million of gambling activity to the black market and reduce industry yields through changes in demand and operator pricing.

Separate research released in January 2026 estimated unlicensed operators already account for roughly 9% of the £8.2 billion UK online gambling market. At a Betting and Gaming Council event, Chris Sanger, EY’s Global Government Tax Leader, said the illegal market had grown from roughly 0.5% of the legal market “a few years ago” to around 10–12% today.

The Gambling Commission will change leadership at the end of April: chief executive Andrew Rhodes is due to step down on April 30, and deputy chief executive Sarah Gardner will serve as acting CEO. The government provided an additional £26 million to the Commission’s black market taskforce in the November 2025 budget.

Parliament will hold a Westminster Hall debate on April 23 to examine how advertising rules should respond to the growing share of spend by unlicensed operators. WARC released its analysis one day before the scheduled debate.