Traders wager $78M as markets forecast bitcoin near $66K

Traders deployed about $78 million across Polymarket and Kalshi on markets tied to bitcoin prices for 2026. The combined volume centers year-end expectations near $66,000 and shows low probabilities for bitcoin topping $75,000 before 2027.

Polymarket’s full-year 2026 market has drawn roughly $42.7 million in trading volume. That market assigns about a 19% probability to bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026 and places the odds of bitcoin hitting $150,000 before year-end in a low single-digit range. Polymarket data also shows traders pricing roughly a 53% chance that bitcoin will fall below $50,000 at some point in 2026 and about a 30% chance of a drop below $40,000.

Polymarket’s June contracts, which have recorded about $15.56 million in volume, reflect the current bitcoin price near $65,800 and favor outcomes around $65,000–$70,000. Short-term upside odds are small: the June $100,000 outcome carries under 1% probability. The market places about a 70% implied probability on a recovery to $67,500, near 38% for $70,000 and roughly 18% for $72,500.

Kalshi’s year-end contract has attracted about $25.8 million in trading and centers the most likely outcomes in the mid-range price buckets. The contract’s current consensus forecast is near $66,000. Visible probabilities concentrate in the $50,000–$54,999 bracket at roughly 9.3%, the $55,000–$59,999 bracket at about 8.8%, and the $45,000–$49,999 bracket at near 7%. Kalshi settles its year-end contract to a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index at 12:00 a.m. EST on Jan. 1, 2027.

Kalshi’s June event, with about $869,577 in volume, assigns roughly a 14% chance that bitcoin will exceed $75,000 before June 30, 2026, about 9% for $77,500 and roughly 5% for $80,000.

Separate markets on both platforms that track a $150,000 milestone show low odds. Polymarket’s date-based market records under 1% probability for a $150,000 price by June 30, 2026, while date-range and full-year markets on the two exchanges place full-year probabilities in the low single digits, generally between about 4% and 7%. Kalshi’s event pages show about a 4% chance of reaching $150,000 before January 2027 and smaller odds for earlier dates.

Traders cited macroeconomic data, regulatory developments and on-chain metrics as factors that could alter these probabilities. Current contract prices on Polymarket and Kalshi reflect the active positions and visible probabilities recorded on each platform.